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Individual-level factors influencing voter turnout in the 2014 European Parliament election

stmm. 2019 (3): 142-158

UDC 316:722

DOI https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2019.03.142

Serhii Shapovalov - Master of Political Science at National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Charitable Organization Charitable Foundation ‘Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation’, Kyiv

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0790-4454

Abstract. The participation of EU citizens in the European Parliament elections is much lower than in the national elections and differs significantly across the EU member states. The article is aimed at finding out the factors that influence the participation of EU citizens in the elections to the European Parliament. The study outlines the theoretical approaches to understanding the phenomenon of the European Parliament elections and the assumptions of researchers about the factors that may influence the electoral activity of citizens. According to second-order elections theory by Karlheinz Reif and Hermann Schmitt citizens perceive European Parliament elections as less important than national elections that results in lower participation. However, the behavior of voters may also be affected by a number of factors which may be regarded as individual-level motivations (trust in national and European authorities, attitudes towards EU institutions etc.). With use of binary logistic regression method, it was defined which factors influenced the participation of citizens in the European Parliament election 2014 and explained the differences in the electoral activity of citizens of different EU countries. The nature of the identified factors that influence the participation of citizens in the elections to the European Parliament suggests that the second-order elections theory is still valid. The paper shows that feeling of political efficacy makes voting a sensible act for a per­son. Feeling close to certain political party motivates a person to support his or her party in all types of elections. The importance of factors related to the second-order elections paradigm is partly confirmed by the voter turnout in 2019 EP elections. More mobilization efforts by the parties and more visible election campaign made the topic of the EP elections more public and motivated the voter to turn out.

Keywords: elections, voter turnout, EU, factors, attitudes.

Publication in: eng

References

Blais, A., Carty, R. (1990) Does proportional representation foster voter turnout? European Journal of Political Research, 18, 167–181. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1990.tb00227.x

Blais, A., Aarts, K. (2006) Electoral Systems and Turnout. Acta Politica, 41, 180–196. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.ap.5500148

Blais, A., Dobrzynska, A. (1998) Turnout in electoral democracies. European Journal of Political Research, 33, 239–261. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.00382

Blais, A. (2006) What Affects Voter Turnout? Annual Review of Political Science, 9, 111–125. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.070204.105121

Blais, A., Massicotte, L., Dobrzynska, A. (2003)Why is Turnout Higher in Some Countries than in Others? Retreived from: https://www.elections.ca/res/rec/part/tuh/TurnoutH...

Clark, N. (2013) Explaining Low Turnout in European Elections: The Role of Issue Salience and Institutional Perceptions in Elections to the European Parliament. Journal of European Integration, 36 (4), 339–356. https://doi.org/10.1080/07036337.2013.841680

Dyck, J., Lascher, E. (2009) Direct Democracy and Political Efficacy Reconsidered. Political Behavior, 31 (3), 401–427. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-008-9081-x

Field, A. (2009) Discovering Statistics Using SPSS. Third Edition. London: SAGE Publications Ltd.

Fiorino, N., Pontarollo, N., Ricciuti, R. (2016) Voter Turnout in European Parliament Elections: A Spatial Analysis. CESifo Working Paper Series, 5910.

Fislage, F. (1015) EU Elections — Where Are the Voters? In: Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. Retreived from: https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=d3b13d4c-81ad-5926-f2eb-d41cbc81f95b&groupId=252038.

Franklin, M., Bernhard, W. (2009) Turning Out or Turning Off: Do Mobilization and Attitudes Account for Turnout Differences between New and Established Member States at the 2004 EP Elections? European Integration, 31 (5), 609–626. https://doi.org/10.1080/07036330903145880

Franklin, M. (2004) Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies Since 1945. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511616884.013

Franklin, M., Eijk, M. van der, Marsh, M. (1996) What Voters Teach Us About Europe-Wide Elections: What Europe-Wide Elections Teach Us About Voters. Electoral Studies, 15 (2), 149–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-3794(96)00009-1

Gronlund, K., Setala, M. (2007) Political Trust, Satisfaction and Voter Turnout. Comparative European Politics, 5, 400–422. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.cep.6110113

Hobolt, S., Spoon, J., Tilley, J. (2008) A Vote Against Europe? Explaining Defection at the 1999 and 2004 European Parliament Elections. British Journal of Political Science, 39 (1), 93–115. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123408000422

Jackman, R. (1987) Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies / Robert Jackman. American Political Science Review, 81 (2). 405–423. https://doi.org/10.2307/1961959

Marsh, M. (1998) Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections. British Journal of Political Science, 28 (4), 591–607. https://doi.org/10.1017/s000712349800026x

Mattila, M. (2003) Why bother? Determinants of turnout in the European elections. Electoral Studies, 22, 449–468. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0261-3794(01)00054-3

Oelbermann, K., Pukelsheim, F. (2015) European Elections 2014: From Voters to Representatives, in Twenty-eight Ways. European Electoral Studies. 10 (2), 91–124.

Powell, B. (2009) Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability, and Violence. Harvard: Harvard University Press.

Reif, K., Schmitt, H. (1980) Order National Elections–A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results. European Journal of Political Research, 8, 3–44.

Rose, R. (2004) Europe expands, turnout falls: The Significance of the 2004 European Parliament Election. Glasgow: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, University of Strathclydes.

Schmitt, H., Mannheimer, R. (1991) About voting and non-voting in the European elections of June 1989. European Journal of Political Research, 19, 31–54. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1991.tb01176.x

Schmitt, H. (2005) The European Parliament Elections of June 2004: Still Second-Order? West European Politics, 28, 650–679. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402380500085962

Söderlund, P., Wass, H., Blais, A. (2011) The impact of motivational and contextual factors on turnout in first- and second-order elections. Electoral Studies, 30, 689–699. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2011.06.013

Individual-level factors influencing voter turnout in the 2014 European Parliament election

stmm. 2019 (3): 142-158

UDC 316:722

DOI https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2019.03.142

Serhii Shapovalov - Master of Political Science at National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Charitable Organization Charitable Foundation ‘Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation’, Kyiv

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0790-4454

Abstract. The participation of EU citizens in the European Parliament elections is much lower than in the national elections and differs significantly across the EU member states. The article is aimed at finding out the factors that influence the participation of EU citizens in the elections to the European Parliament. The study outlines the theoretical approaches to understanding the phenomenon of the European Parliament elections and the assumptions of researchers about the factors that may influence the electoral activity of citizens. According to second-order elections theory by Karlheinz Reif and Hermann Schmitt citizens perceive European Parliament elections as less important than national elections that results in lower participation. However, the behavior of voters may also be affected by a number of factors which may be regarded as individual-level motivations (trust in national and European authorities, attitudes towards EU institutions etc.). With use of binary logistic regression method, it was defined which factors influenced the participation of citizens in the European Parliament election 2014 and explained the differences in the electoral activity of citizens of different EU countries. The nature of the identified factors that influence the participation of citizens in the elections to the European Parliament suggests that the second-order elections theory is still valid. The paper shows that feeling of political efficacy makes voting a sensible act for a per­son. Feeling close to certain political party motivates a person to support his or her party in all types of elections. The importance of factors related to the second-order elections paradigm is partly confirmed by the voter turnout in 2019 EP elections. More mobilization efforts by the parties and more visible election campaign made the topic of the EP elections more public and motivated the voter to turn out.

Keywords: elections, voter turnout, EU, factors, attitudes.

Publication in: eng

References

Blais, A., Carty, R. (1990) Does proportional representation foster voter turnout? European Journal of Political Research, 18, 167–181. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1990.tb00227.x

Blais, A., Aarts, K. (2006) Electoral Systems and Turnout. Acta Politica, 41, 180–196. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.ap.5500148

Blais, A., Dobrzynska, A. (1998) Turnout in electoral democracies. European Journal of Political Research, 33, 239–261. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.00382

Blais, A. (2006) What Affects Voter Turnout? Annual Review of Political Science, 9, 111–125. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.070204.105121

Blais, A., Massicotte, L., Dobrzynska, A. (2003)Why is Turnout Higher in Some Countries than in Others? Retreived from: https://www.elections.ca/res/rec/part/tuh/TurnoutH...

Clark, N. (2013) Explaining Low Turnout in European Elections: The Role of Issue Salience and Institutional Perceptions in Elections to the European Parliament. Journal of European Integration, 36 (4), 339–356. https://doi.org/10.1080/07036337.2013.841680

Dyck, J., Lascher, E. (2009) Direct Democracy and Political Efficacy Reconsidered. Political Behavior, 31 (3), 401–427. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-008-9081-x

Field, A. (2009) Discovering Statistics Using SPSS. Third Edition. London: SAGE Publications Ltd.

Fiorino, N., Pontarollo, N., Ricciuti, R. (2016) Voter Turnout in European Parliament Elections: A Spatial Analysis. CESifo Working Paper Series, 5910.

Fislage, F. (1015) EU Elections — Where Are the Voters? In: Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. Retreived from: https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=d3b13d4c-81ad-5926-f2eb-d41cbc81f95b&groupId=252038.

Franklin, M., Bernhard, W. (2009) Turning Out or Turning Off: Do Mobilization and Attitudes Account for Turnout Differences between New and Established Member States at the 2004 EP Elections? European Integration, 31 (5), 609–626. https://doi.org/10.1080/07036330903145880

Franklin, M. (2004) Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies Since 1945. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511616884.013

Franklin, M., Eijk, M. van der, Marsh, M. (1996) What Voters Teach Us About Europe-Wide Elections: What Europe-Wide Elections Teach Us About Voters. Electoral Studies, 15 (2), 149–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-3794(96)00009-1

Gronlund, K., Setala, M. (2007) Political Trust, Satisfaction and Voter Turnout. Comparative European Politics, 5, 400–422. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.cep.6110113

Hobolt, S., Spoon, J., Tilley, J. (2008) A Vote Against Europe? Explaining Defection at the 1999 and 2004 European Parliament Elections. British Journal of Political Science, 39 (1), 93–115. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123408000422

Jackman, R. (1987) Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies / Robert Jackman. American Political Science Review, 81 (2). 405–423. https://doi.org/10.2307/1961959

Marsh, M. (1998) Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections. British Journal of Political Science, 28 (4), 591–607. https://doi.org/10.1017/s000712349800026x

Mattila, M. (2003) Why bother? Determinants of turnout in the European elections. Electoral Studies, 22, 449–468. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0261-3794(01)00054-3

Oelbermann, K., Pukelsheim, F. (2015) European Elections 2014: From Voters to Representatives, in Twenty-eight Ways. European Electoral Studies. 10 (2), 91–124.

Powell, B. (2009) Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability, and Violence. Harvard: Harvard University Press.

Reif, K., Schmitt, H. (1980) Order National Elections–A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results. European Journal of Political Research, 8, 3–44.

Rose, R. (2004) Europe expands, turnout falls: The Significance of the 2004 European Parliament Election. Glasgow: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, University of Strathclydes.

Schmitt, H., Mannheimer, R. (1991) About voting and non-voting in the European elections of June 1989. European Journal of Political Research, 19, 31–54. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1991.tb01176.x

Schmitt, H. (2005) The European Parliament Elections of June 2004: Still Second-Order? West European Politics, 28, 650–679. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402380500085962

Söderlund, P., Wass, H., Blais, A. (2011) The impact of motivational and contextual factors on turnout in first- and second-order elections. Electoral Studies, 30, 689–699. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2011.06.013

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