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Sociological forecasting: features of study and nowadays problems

stmm. 2024 (2): 163-177

Full text: https://stmm.in.ua/archive/ukr/2024-2/11.pdf

VALERII PYLYPENKO, Doctor of Sciences in Sociology, Chief Research Fellow at the Department of History and Theory of Sociology, Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021)

VICTORIІA SMAKOTA, Candidate of Sciences in Sociology, Head of the Department of Economic Sociology, Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021)

smakvik@ukr.net

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1916-1034

The article describes some important methodological problems of forecasting in general and sociological forecasting in particular, as well as the principles and verification bases for checking and evaluating predictive sociological projects both in theoretical and practical terms. This area of research can and should be continued and expanded in order to overcome the lag behind modern scientific and practical requirements, which is still observed in the field of predictive developments and indicates a lack of demand in society for this most important area of research for the life of society in its theoretical, cognitive and applied aspects.

Now, there is an understanding that a scientifically based social policy should be based on a reliable management theory and implement long-term sociological forecasts and projects based on a new paradigm of social development priorities. An effective tool for Transforming Social Development Management in accordance with modern paradigms and priorities is predictive sociological design as a link in the social management cycle, which is a social technology, it is aimed at diagnosing and predicting current and promising socially significant problems and developing samples for solving such problems.

Ensuring sound, reliable and effective management of social processes is one of the most relevant and promising areas of search and fundamental interdisciplinary research. Only on the basis of combining the efforts of specialists who have theoretical and practical developments in various fields of specialized scientific knowledge about a person and society, it is possible to overcome the gap between the accumulated scientific knowledge and the practice of making managerial decisions.

Keywords: society, sociology, forecast, prediction, development, future

References

Aristotle. (2022). Metaphysics. Tr. by O. Panych. [In Ukrainian]. Kyiv: Tempora. [= Арістотель 2022].

Arutyunov, V.Kh., Svintsitsky, V.M. (2003). Philosophy of global problems of modernity: textbook-method. manual. [In Ukrainian]. Kyiv: KNEU. Retrieved from: http://politics.ellib.org.ua/pages-3047.html. [=Арутюнов, Свінціцький 2003].

Dictionary of the Ukrainian Language. [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://slovnyk.ua/index.php?swrd=

Kazakov, V., Pylypenko, V., Pryvalov, Yu. (2022). Populism: Theory and Practice, History and Modernity. [In Ukrainian]. Lviv: Liga-Press. [= Казаков 2022].

Krymskyi, S.B., Pylypenko, V.Ye., Saliuk, Yu.V. (2017). Verification of social forecasts (methodological aspect). 25 years later. 2nd ed. [In Ukrainian]. Kyiv-Lviv: Liga-Press. [= Кримський 2017].

Pivnieva, L. N. (2007). The importance of social forecasting for social development in Ukraine. [In Ukrainian]. Humanitarian Journal, 3, pp. 92-97. [=Пивнева 2007].

Popper, K.P. (1959). The Logic of Scientific Discovery. London.

Pylypenko, V. (2005). A person in a market society: orientation, behavior, culture. [In Ukrainian]. Kyiv: Stylos. [= Пилипенко 2005].

Pylypenko, V. (2012). Ukrainian Sociology Today: a Study of the Main Spheres of Society’s Life. [In Ukrainian]. Lviv: ZUKC. [= Пилипенко 2012].

Pylypenko, V., Chepurko, G. (2016). Modernization: Theory, Practice, Civilizational Dimension. [In Ukrainian]. Lviv: Liga-Press. [= Пилипенко 2016].

Pylypenko, V., Chepurko, G. (2018). Social Dialogue and Transformational Changes in Ukraine. [In Ukrainian]. Lviv: Liga-Press. [= Пилипенко 2018].

Pylypenko, V., Pryvalov, Yu., Nikolaevskyi, V. (2008). Power elite in the context of Social Development. [In Ukrainian]. Kyiv: Stylos. [= Пилипенко 2008].

The Global Risks Report. (2024). World Economic Forum. Retrieved from: https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/

Received 22.01.2024

Sociological forecasting: features of study and nowadays problems

stmm. 2024 (2): 163-177

Full text: https://stmm.in.ua/archive/ukr/2024-2/11.pdf

VALERII PYLYPENKO, Doctor of Sciences in Sociology, Chief Research Fellow at the Department of History and Theory of Sociology, Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021)

VICTORIІA SMAKOTA, Candidate of Sciences in Sociology, Head of the Department of Economic Sociology, Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021)

smakvik@ukr.net

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1916-1034

The article describes some important methodological problems of forecasting in general and sociological forecasting in particular, as well as the principles and verification bases for checking and evaluating predictive sociological projects both in theoretical and practical terms. This area of research can and should be continued and expanded in order to overcome the lag behind modern scientific and practical requirements, which is still observed in the field of predictive developments and indicates a lack of demand in society for this most important area of research for the life of society in its theoretical, cognitive and applied aspects.

Now, there is an understanding that a scientifically based social policy should be based on a reliable management theory and implement long-term sociological forecasts and projects based on a new paradigm of social development priorities. An effective tool for Transforming Social Development Management in accordance with modern paradigms and priorities is predictive sociological design as a link in the social management cycle, which is a social technology, it is aimed at diagnosing and predicting current and promising socially significant problems and developing samples for solving such problems.

Ensuring sound, reliable and effective management of social processes is one of the most relevant and promising areas of search and fundamental interdisciplinary research. Only on the basis of combining the efforts of specialists who have theoretical and practical developments in various fields of specialized scientific knowledge about a person and society, it is possible to overcome the gap between the accumulated scientific knowledge and the practice of making managerial decisions.

Keywords: society, sociology, forecast, prediction, development, future

References

Aristotle. (2022). Metaphysics. Tr. by O. Panych. [In Ukrainian]. Kyiv: Tempora. [= Арістотель 2022].

Arutyunov, V.Kh., Svintsitsky, V.M. (2003). Philosophy of global problems of modernity: textbook-method. manual. [In Ukrainian]. Kyiv: KNEU. Retrieved from: http://politics.ellib.org.ua/pages-3047.html. [=Арутюнов, Свінціцький 2003].

Dictionary of the Ukrainian Language. [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://slovnyk.ua/index.php?swrd=

Kazakov, V., Pylypenko, V., Pryvalov, Yu. (2022). Populism: Theory and Practice, History and Modernity. [In Ukrainian]. Lviv: Liga-Press. [= Казаков 2022].

Krymskyi, S.B., Pylypenko, V.Ye., Saliuk, Yu.V. (2017). Verification of social forecasts (methodological aspect). 25 years later. 2nd ed. [In Ukrainian]. Kyiv-Lviv: Liga-Press. [= Кримський 2017].

Pivnieva, L. N. (2007). The importance of social forecasting for social development in Ukraine. [In Ukrainian]. Humanitarian Journal, 3, pp. 92-97. [=Пивнева 2007].

Popper, K.P. (1959). The Logic of Scientific Discovery. London.

Pylypenko, V. (2005). A person in a market society: orientation, behavior, culture. [In Ukrainian]. Kyiv: Stylos. [= Пилипенко 2005].

Pylypenko, V. (2012). Ukrainian Sociology Today: a Study of the Main Spheres of Society’s Life. [In Ukrainian]. Lviv: ZUKC. [= Пилипенко 2012].

Pylypenko, V., Chepurko, G. (2016). Modernization: Theory, Practice, Civilizational Dimension. [In Ukrainian]. Lviv: Liga-Press. [= Пилипенко 2016].

Pylypenko, V., Chepurko, G. (2018). Social Dialogue and Transformational Changes in Ukraine. [In Ukrainian]. Lviv: Liga-Press. [= Пилипенко 2018].

Pylypenko, V., Pryvalov, Yu., Nikolaevskyi, V. (2008). Power elite in the context of Social Development. [In Ukrainian]. Kyiv: Stylos. [= Пилипенко 2008].

The Global Risks Report. (2024). World Economic Forum. Retrieved from: https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/

Received 22.01.2024

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