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The perception of Ukrainians about political life in the post-war period and the prospects for the spread of populism

stmm. 2024 (2): 25-39

DOI https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2024.02.025

Full text: https://stmm.in.ua/archive/ukr/2024-2/4.pdf

OLEKSANDR RAKHMANOV, Doctor of Sciences in Sociology, Associate Professor, Leading Research Fellow at the Department of Social and Political Processes, Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021)

kneu_1906@ukr.net

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8884-5515

The non-acceptance by the majority of the population of Ukraine of the idea of elections during a full-scale war is a forced prolongation of the legitimacy of existing state institutions. Ukrainians understand all the risks of such elections for the political system under martial law, agreeing to the norms of legislation and compliance with democratic procedures. At the same time, a sufficiently significant number of the population is forming, which does not share the monopolization of power during the war by one political force. Accumulation of political issues, which will be expressed in the post-war period, will become a significant challenge for the political class of Ukraine. The low level of trust in existing political parties and the growing demand for new political forces can become a favorable background for the spread of anti-elitist ideas of populism. In public opinion, there is a demand mostly for politicians from the military environment and to a lesser extent from expert and civil sectors, intelligentsia, and volunteers. Reconstruction of the post-war economy will require non-standard solutions, in particular, optimization of expenditures in the social sphere and maximum liberalization. Several innovations will not have support in the mass consciousness. In particular, Ukrainians are mostly in favor of free medicine and education, a ban on the sale of land to foreigners, and assigning responsibility for increasing people’s incomes to the state, not to the individual. The lack of financial resources after the end of the war can accelerate the growing social deprivation. The combination of these potentially conflicting attitudes with a high level of antagonism and intolerance to a different political point of view can be skilfully «warmed up» by populist forces.

Keywords: political attitudes, postwar life, support for populism

References

  1. Almond, G.A., Verba, S. (1963). The civic culture: Political attitudes and democracy in five nations. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400874569

  2. Bakker, R., Edwards, E., Hooghe, L., Jolly, S., Marks, G., Polk, J., Rovny, J., Steenbergen, M., Vachudova, M. (2015). The 2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey. Version 2015.1. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina. Retrieved from: https://www.chesdata.eu/2014-chapel-hill-expert-survey

  3. Canovan, M. (1999). Trust the people! Populism and the two faces of democracy. Political Studies, 47(1), 2-16. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9248.00184

  4. Dalton, R.J. (2006). Citizen politics: Public opinion and political parties in advanced industrial democracies. CQ Press.

  5. Di Tella, R., MacCulloch, R. (2009). Why Doesn't Capitalism Flow to Poor Countries? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring, 285-321. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.0.0048

  6. KIIS. (2023a). When elections should be held, attitudes towards online voting and attitudes towards possible restrictions on citizens' rights: results of a telephone survey conducted on September 30 - October 11, 2023. 30.10.2023. Retrieved from: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1309&page=1

  7. KIIS. (2023b). Attitude towards the creation of the government of national unity. 21.12.2023. Retrieved from: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1339&page=1

  8. KIIS. (2023c). How to punish corruptors: according to the law, even if slowly, or as soon as possible, even if in violation of the law. 20.12.2023. Retrieved from: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1337&page=2

  9. Krastev, I. (2006). The New Europe: Respectable populism, clockwork Liberalism. Open Democracy, 21 March 2006. Retrieved from https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/new_europe_3376jsp

  10. Lipset, S.M. (1960). Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics. Doubleday.

  11. Mudde, C. (2004). The populist Zeitgeist. Government and Opposition, 39(4), 542-563. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00135.x

  12. Norris, P. (1999). Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Governance. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198295685.001.0001

  13. Rooduijn, M. (2014). The nucleus of populism: In search of the lowest common denominator. Government and Opposition, 49(4), 573-599. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2013.30

  14. Sociological group «Rating». (2023a). Unseen glue: social capital in Ukraine. 27.11.2023. [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nevidimiy_kley_doslidzhennya_socialnogo_kapitalu_v_ukraini.html

  15. Sociological group «Rating». (2023b). Sociological research for Independence Day: perceptions of patriotism and the future of Ukraine (August 16-20, 2023). 24.08.2023. [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rating_independence_august_2023.pdf

  16. Stanley, B., Cześnik, M. (2021). Uninformed or informed populists? The relationship between political knowledge, socio-economic status and populist attitudes in Poland. East European Politics, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2021.1876676

  17. The Razumkov Center. (2022). Political results of 2022: citizens' assessment of the situation in the country and the actions of the authorities, trust in social institutions (December 2022). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/politychni-pidsumky-2022-roku-otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-ta-dii-vlady-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-gruden-2022r

  18. The Razumkov Center. (2023a). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country, trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures (May 2023). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-traven-2023r

  19. The Razumkov Center. (2023b). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country. Trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures. Attitudes towards the holding of national elections in Ukraine before the end of the war (September 2023). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-stavlennia-do-provedennia-zagalnonatsionalnykh-vyboriv-v-ukraini-do-zavershennia-viiny-veresen-2023r

  20. The Razumkov Center. (2023c). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country. Trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures (December 2023). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-gruden-2023r

  21. The Razumkov Center. (2024). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country and the actions of the authorities. Trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures (January 2024). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-ta-dii-vlady-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-sichen-2024r

  22. van Kessel, S. (2014). The populist cat-dog: applying the concept of populism to contemporary European party systems. Journal of Political Ideologies, 19(1), 99-118. https://doi.org/10.1080/13569317.2013.869457

  23. Vedernikova, I. (2023). War and elections. Which victory is more important? [In Ukrainian]. ZN.UA. May 18. Retrieved from: https://zn.ua/ukr/war/vijna-i-vibori-jaka-peremoha-vazhlivisha.html

Received 07.01.2024

The perception of Ukrainians about political life in the post-war period and the prospects for the spread of populism

stmm. 2024 (2): 25-39

DOI https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2024.02.025

Full text: https://stmm.in.ua/archive/ukr/2024-2/4.pdf

OLEKSANDR RAKHMANOV, Doctor of Sciences in Sociology, Associate Professor, Leading Research Fellow at the Department of Social and Political Processes, Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021)

kneu_1906@ukr.net

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8884-5515

The non-acceptance by the majority of the population of Ukraine of the idea of elections during a full-scale war is a forced prolongation of the legitimacy of existing state institutions. Ukrainians understand all the risks of such elections for the political system under martial law, agreeing to the norms of legislation and compliance with democratic procedures. At the same time, a sufficiently significant number of the population is forming, which does not share the monopolization of power during the war by one political force. Accumulation of political issues, which will be expressed in the post-war period, will become a significant challenge for the political class of Ukraine. The low level of trust in existing political parties and the growing demand for new political forces can become a favorable background for the spread of anti-elitist ideas of populism. In public opinion, there is a demand mostly for politicians from the military environment and to a lesser extent from expert and civil sectors, intelligentsia, and volunteers. Reconstruction of the post-war economy will require non-standard solutions, in particular, optimization of expenditures in the social sphere and maximum liberalization. Several innovations will not have support in the mass consciousness. In particular, Ukrainians are mostly in favor of free medicine and education, a ban on the sale of land to foreigners, and assigning responsibility for increasing people’s incomes to the state, not to the individual. The lack of financial resources after the end of the war can accelerate the growing social deprivation. The combination of these potentially conflicting attitudes with a high level of antagonism and intolerance to a different political point of view can be skilfully «warmed up» by populist forces.

Keywords: political attitudes, postwar life, support for populism

References

  1. Almond, G.A., Verba, S. (1963). The civic culture: Political attitudes and democracy in five nations. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400874569

  2. Bakker, R., Edwards, E., Hooghe, L., Jolly, S., Marks, G., Polk, J., Rovny, J., Steenbergen, M., Vachudova, M. (2015). The 2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey. Version 2015.1. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina. Retrieved from: https://www.chesdata.eu/2014-chapel-hill-expert-survey

  3. Canovan, M. (1999). Trust the people! Populism and the two faces of democracy. Political Studies, 47(1), 2-16. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9248.00184

  4. Dalton, R.J. (2006). Citizen politics: Public opinion and political parties in advanced industrial democracies. CQ Press.

  5. Di Tella, R., MacCulloch, R. (2009). Why Doesn't Capitalism Flow to Poor Countries? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring, 285-321. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.0.0048

  6. KIIS. (2023a). When elections should be held, attitudes towards online voting and attitudes towards possible restrictions on citizens' rights: results of a telephone survey conducted on September 30 - October 11, 2023. 30.10.2023. Retrieved from: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1309&page=1

  7. KIIS. (2023b). Attitude towards the creation of the government of national unity. 21.12.2023. Retrieved from: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1339&page=1

  8. KIIS. (2023c). How to punish corruptors: according to the law, even if slowly, or as soon as possible, even if in violation of the law. 20.12.2023. Retrieved from: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1337&page=2

  9. Krastev, I. (2006). The New Europe: Respectable populism, clockwork Liberalism. Open Democracy, 21 March 2006. Retrieved from https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/new_europe_3376jsp

  10. Lipset, S.M. (1960). Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics. Doubleday.

  11. Mudde, C. (2004). The populist Zeitgeist. Government and Opposition, 39(4), 542-563. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00135.x

  12. Norris, P. (1999). Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Governance. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198295685.001.0001

  13. Rooduijn, M. (2014). The nucleus of populism: In search of the lowest common denominator. Government and Opposition, 49(4), 573-599. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2013.30

  14. Sociological group «Rating». (2023a). Unseen glue: social capital in Ukraine. 27.11.2023. [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nevidimiy_kley_doslidzhennya_socialnogo_kapitalu_v_ukraini.html

  15. Sociological group «Rating». (2023b). Sociological research for Independence Day: perceptions of patriotism and the future of Ukraine (August 16-20, 2023). 24.08.2023. [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rating_independence_august_2023.pdf

  16. Stanley, B., Cześnik, M. (2021). Uninformed or informed populists? The relationship between political knowledge, socio-economic status and populist attitudes in Poland. East European Politics, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2021.1876676

  17. The Razumkov Center. (2022). Political results of 2022: citizens' assessment of the situation in the country and the actions of the authorities, trust in social institutions (December 2022). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/politychni-pidsumky-2022-roku-otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-ta-dii-vlady-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-gruden-2022r

  18. The Razumkov Center. (2023a). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country, trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures (May 2023). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-traven-2023r

  19. The Razumkov Center. (2023b). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country. Trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures. Attitudes towards the holding of national elections in Ukraine before the end of the war (September 2023). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-stavlennia-do-provedennia-zagalnonatsionalnykh-vyboriv-v-ukraini-do-zavershennia-viiny-veresen-2023r

  20. The Razumkov Center. (2023c). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country. Trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures (December 2023). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-gruden-2023r

  21. The Razumkov Center. (2024). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country and the actions of the authorities. Trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures (January 2024). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-ta-dii-vlady-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-sichen-2024r

  22. van Kessel, S. (2014). The populist cat-dog: applying the concept of populism to contemporary European party systems. Journal of Political Ideologies, 19(1), 99-118. https://doi.org/10.1080/13569317.2013.869457

  23. Vedernikova, I. (2023). War and elections. Which victory is more important? [In Ukrainian]. ZN.UA. May 18. Retrieved from: https://zn.ua/ukr/war/vijna-i-vibori-jaka-peremoha-vazhlivisha.html

Received 07.01.2024

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