«Cardboard maidan 2.0»: attitudes, participation, and value determinants of protest activity among ukrainians under martial law

MARTA NAUMOVA, PhD in Sociology, Associate Professor, Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021, Ukraine)

martanaumova1971@gmail.com

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9152-6467

The article analyzes the phenomenon of the "cardboard maidan" — a series of small but socially significant protest actions that spontaneously emerged in Ukrainian cities in July 2026 in response to the dismissal of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Mykhailo Fedorov. The author examines these events through the prism of the sociological problem of the discrepancy between mass public discontent and actual participation in street protests under martial law. It is argued that during a full-scale war, the size of protests ceases to be a reliable indicator of social tension due to specific suppressors: from the reputational risks of "splitting society" to security threats for draft-age participants. Instead, such leaderless, networked, and symbolically loaded actions represent a "new" repertoire of protest activity. The empirical basis of the study relies on the results of an online survey (CAWI) of the adult urban population of Ukraine aged 18–60 (N=1032), conducted during the peak of public interest in the events (July 20–24, 2026). The survey data recorded an unprecedented social consensus: 63% of respondents negatively evaluated the authorities’ personnel decisions (the ratio of those who disagree to those who agree is 12 to 1). Special attention is paid to studying the value dimension of protest behavior using S. Schwartz’s theory of basic individual values (PVQ-21 methodology). A comparison of the value profiles of modern protesters with the European Social Survey (ESS-11) data and the indicators of the 2013 Euromaidan period is carried out. This allowed tracing the transformation of the "attitude-action" configuration over the years of the full-scale war. The study proves that even under conditions of high participation costs, value orientations remain a powerful predictor of political action, and the "cardboard maidan" itself is not a simple "hipster entertainment," as media discourse attempted to marginalize it, but rather serves as an important symptom of profound transformations within civil society.

Keywords: protest activity; "cardboard maidan"; martial law; value determinants; basic values; political participation; sociological survey

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Received 08.09.2026

Accepted for publication after review 19.10.2026