Institute of Sociology NASU

Demographic resilience of Ukraine: quantitative and structural transformations of the population amid the war (part 1)

stmm. 2026 (4): 34-54

DOI

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GULBARSHYN CHEPURKO, Doctor of Sciences in Sociology, Senior Research Fellow, Head of the Department of Social Expertise, Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021)

gichepurko@ukr.net

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7540-5174

The article examines quantitative and structural transformations of the population of Ukraine under the conditions of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war and their impact on demographic resilience and the prospects for the recovery of Ukrainian society. The aim of the study is to analyze demographic losses, structural shifts, territorial disparities, and migration processes, as well as to determine their significance for demographic resilience. The methodological framework combines an interdisciplinary approach, Norbert Elias’s process-relational perspective, and theoretical approaches to societal resilience. An analytical framework is proposed that integrates the horizontal dimension of adaptation (reactive, interactive, and proactive types) and the vertical dimension (individual, institutional, and state levels). The empirical basis consists of statistical data, administrative registers, sociological research findings, and international sources. The study demonstrates that the war has intensified long-term demographic trends, including depopulation, population ageing, declining fertility, premature mortality, a reduction in labor potential, human losses, and both external and internal migration. These processes are accompanied by changes in the sex-age structure and growing territorial disparities, which affect human capital reproduction and the potential for recovery. The findings indicate that current responses to demographic challenges are predominantly reactive, although conditions are emerging for a transition toward interactive and proactive mechanisms. The study substantiates the need for long-term demographic policy aimed at restoring population size, supporting fertility, facilitating the return of citizens, integrating internally displaced persons, and mitigating the effects of population ageing and declining labor potential.

Keywords: demographic resilience; demographic crisis; war; depopulation; fertility; mortality; migration; sex-age structure; population reproduction; demographic potential

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Received 29.07.2026

Accepted for publication after review 29.09.2026