The perception of Ukrainians about political life in the post-war period and the prospects for the spread of populism
stmm. 2024 (2): 25-39
DOI https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2024.02.025
Full text: https://stmm.in.ua/archive/ukr/2024-2/4.pdf
OLEKSANDR RAKHMANOV, Doctor of Sciences in Sociology, Associate Professor, Leading Research Fellow at the Department of Social and Political Processes, Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021)
kneu_1906@ukr.net
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8884-5515
The non-acceptance by the majority of the population of Ukraine of the idea of elections during a full-scale war is a forced prolongation of the legitimacy of existing state institutions. Ukrainians understand all the risks of such elections for the political system under martial law, agreeing to the norms of legislation and compliance with democratic procedures. At the same time, a sufficiently significant number of the population is forming, which does not share the monopolization of power during the war by one political force. Accumulation of political issues, which will be expressed in the post-war period, will become a significant challenge for the political class of Ukraine. The low level of trust in existing political parties and the growing demand for new political forces can become a favorable background for the spread of anti-elitist ideas of populism. In public opinion, there is a demand mostly for politicians from the military environment and to a lesser extent from expert and civil sectors, intelligentsia, and volunteers. Reconstruction of the post-war economy will require non-standard solutions, in particular, optimization of expenditures in the social sphere and maximum liberalization. Several innovations will not have support in the mass consciousness. In particular, Ukrainians are mostly in favor of free medicine and education, a ban on the sale of land to foreigners, and assigning responsibility for increasing people’s incomes to the state, not to the individual. The lack of financial resources after the end of the war can accelerate the growing social deprivation. The combination of these potentially conflicting attitudes with a high level of antagonism and intolerance to a different political point of view can be skilfully «warmed up» by populist forces.
Keywords: political attitudes, postwar life, support for populism
References
Almond, G.A., Verba, S. (1963). The civic culture: Political attitudes and democracy in five nations. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400874569
Bakker, R., Edwards, E., Hooghe, L., Jolly, S., Marks, G., Polk, J., Rovny, J., Steenbergen, M., Vachudova, M. (2015). The 2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey. Version 2015.1. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina. Retrieved from: https://www.chesdata.eu/2014-chapel-hill-expert-survey
Canovan, M. (1999). Trust the people! Populism and the two faces of democracy. Political Studies, 47(1), 2-16. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9248.00184
Dalton, R.J. (2006). Citizen politics: Public opinion and political parties in advanced industrial democracies. CQ Press.
Di Tella, R., MacCulloch, R. (2009). Why Doesn't Capitalism Flow to Poor Countries? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring, 285-321. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.0.0048
KIIS. (2023a). When elections should be held, attitudes towards online voting and attitudes towards possible restrictions on citizens' rights: results of a telephone survey conducted on September 30 - October 11, 2023. 30.10.2023. Retrieved from: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1309&page=1
KIIS. (2023b). Attitude towards the creation of the government of national unity. 21.12.2023. Retrieved from: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1339&page=1
KIIS. (2023c). How to punish corruptors: according to the law, even if slowly, or as soon as possible, even if in violation of the law. 20.12.2023. Retrieved from: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1337&page=2
Krastev, I. (2006). The New Europe: Respectable populism, clockwork Liberalism. Open Democracy, 21 March 2006. Retrieved from https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/new_europe_3376jsp
Lipset, S.M. (1960). Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics. Doubleday.
Mudde, C. (2004). The populist Zeitgeist. Government and Opposition, 39(4), 542-563. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00135.x
Norris, P. (1999). Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Governance. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198295685.001.0001
Rooduijn, M. (2014). The nucleus of populism: In search of the lowest common denominator. Government and Opposition, 49(4), 573-599. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2013.30
Sociological group «Rating». (2023a). Unseen glue: social capital in Ukraine. 27.11.2023. [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nevidimiy_kley_doslidzhennya_socialnogo_kapitalu_v_ukraini.html
Sociological group «Rating». (2023b). Sociological research for Independence Day: perceptions of patriotism and the future of Ukraine (August 16-20, 2023). 24.08.2023. [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rating_independence_august_2023.pdf
Stanley, B., Cześnik, M. (2021). Uninformed or informed populists? The relationship between political knowledge, socio-economic status and populist attitudes in Poland. East European Politics, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2021.1876676
The Razumkov Center. (2022). Political results of 2022: citizens' assessment of the situation in the country and the actions of the authorities, trust in social institutions (December 2022). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/politychni-pidsumky-2022-roku-otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-ta-dii-vlady-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-gruden-2022r
The Razumkov Center. (2023a). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country, trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures (May 2023). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-traven-2023r
The Razumkov Center. (2023b). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country. Trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures. Attitudes towards the holding of national elections in Ukraine before the end of the war (September 2023). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-stavlennia-do-provedennia-zagalnonatsionalnykh-vyboriv-v-ukraini-do-zavershennia-viiny-veresen-2023r
The Razumkov Center. (2023c). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country. Trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures (December 2023). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-gruden-2023r
The Razumkov Center. (2024). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country and the actions of the authorities. Trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures (January 2024). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-ta-dii-vlady-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-sichen-2024r
van Kessel, S. (2014). The populist cat-dog: applying the concept of populism to contemporary European party systems. Journal of Political Ideologies, 19(1), 99-118. https://doi.org/10.1080/13569317.2013.869457
Received 07.01.2024
The perception of Ukrainians about political life in the post-war period and the prospects for the spread of populism
stmm. 2024 (2): 25-39
DOI https://doi.org/10.15407/sociology2024.02.025
Full text: https://stmm.in.ua/archive/ukr/2024-2/4.pdf
OLEKSANDR RAKHMANOV, Doctor of Sciences in Sociology, Associate Professor, Leading Research Fellow at the Department of Social and Political Processes, Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (12, Shovkovychna St., Kyiv, 01021)
kneu_1906@ukr.net
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8884-5515
The non-acceptance by the majority of the population of Ukraine of the idea of elections during a full-scale war is a forced prolongation of the legitimacy of existing state institutions. Ukrainians understand all the risks of such elections for the political system under martial law, agreeing to the norms of legislation and compliance with democratic procedures. At the same time, a sufficiently significant number of the population is forming, which does not share the monopolization of power during the war by one political force. Accumulation of political issues, which will be expressed in the post-war period, will become a significant challenge for the political class of Ukraine. The low level of trust in existing political parties and the growing demand for new political forces can become a favorable background for the spread of anti-elitist ideas of populism. In public opinion, there is a demand mostly for politicians from the military environment and to a lesser extent from expert and civil sectors, intelligentsia, and volunteers. Reconstruction of the post-war economy will require non-standard solutions, in particular, optimization of expenditures in the social sphere and maximum liberalization. Several innovations will not have support in the mass consciousness. In particular, Ukrainians are mostly in favor of free medicine and education, a ban on the sale of land to foreigners, and assigning responsibility for increasing people’s incomes to the state, not to the individual. The lack of financial resources after the end of the war can accelerate the growing social deprivation. The combination of these potentially conflicting attitudes with a high level of antagonism and intolerance to a different political point of view can be skilfully «warmed up» by populist forces.
Keywords: political attitudes, postwar life, support for populism
References
Almond, G.A., Verba, S. (1963). The civic culture: Political attitudes and democracy in five nations. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400874569
Bakker, R., Edwards, E., Hooghe, L., Jolly, S., Marks, G., Polk, J., Rovny, J., Steenbergen, M., Vachudova, M. (2015). The 2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey. Version 2015.1. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina. Retrieved from: https://www.chesdata.eu/2014-chapel-hill-expert-survey
Canovan, M. (1999). Trust the people! Populism and the two faces of democracy. Political Studies, 47(1), 2-16. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9248.00184
Dalton, R.J. (2006). Citizen politics: Public opinion and political parties in advanced industrial democracies. CQ Press.
Di Tella, R., MacCulloch, R. (2009). Why Doesn't Capitalism Flow to Poor Countries? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring, 285-321. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.0.0048
KIIS. (2023a). When elections should be held, attitudes towards online voting and attitudes towards possible restrictions on citizens' rights: results of a telephone survey conducted on September 30 - October 11, 2023. 30.10.2023. Retrieved from: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1309&page=1
KIIS. (2023b). Attitude towards the creation of the government of national unity. 21.12.2023. Retrieved from: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1339&page=1
KIIS. (2023c). How to punish corruptors: according to the law, even if slowly, or as soon as possible, even if in violation of the law. 20.12.2023. Retrieved from: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1337&page=2
Krastev, I. (2006). The New Europe: Respectable populism, clockwork Liberalism. Open Democracy, 21 March 2006. Retrieved from https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/new_europe_3376jsp
Lipset, S.M. (1960). Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics. Doubleday.
Mudde, C. (2004). The populist Zeitgeist. Government and Opposition, 39(4), 542-563. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00135.x
Norris, P. (1999). Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Governance. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198295685.001.0001
Rooduijn, M. (2014). The nucleus of populism: In search of the lowest common denominator. Government and Opposition, 49(4), 573-599. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2013.30
Sociological group «Rating». (2023a). Unseen glue: social capital in Ukraine. 27.11.2023. [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nevidimiy_kley_doslidzhennya_socialnogo_kapitalu_v_ukraini.html
Sociological group «Rating». (2023b). Sociological research for Independence Day: perceptions of patriotism and the future of Ukraine (August 16-20, 2023). 24.08.2023. [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rating_independence_august_2023.pdf
Stanley, B., Cześnik, M. (2021). Uninformed or informed populists? The relationship between political knowledge, socio-economic status and populist attitudes in Poland. East European Politics, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2021.1876676
The Razumkov Center. (2022). Political results of 2022: citizens' assessment of the situation in the country and the actions of the authorities, trust in social institutions (December 2022). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/politychni-pidsumky-2022-roku-otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-ta-dii-vlady-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-gruden-2022r
The Razumkov Center. (2023a). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country, trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures (May 2023). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-traven-2023r
The Razumkov Center. (2023b). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country. Trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures. Attitudes towards the holding of national elections in Ukraine before the end of the war (September 2023). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-stavlennia-do-provedennia-zagalnonatsionalnykh-vyboriv-v-ukraini-do-zavershennia-viiny-veresen-2023r
The Razumkov Center. (2023c). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country. Trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures (December 2023). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-gruden-2023r
The Razumkov Center. (2024). Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country and the actions of the authorities. Trust in social institutions, politicians, officials and public figures (January 2024). [In Ukrainian]. Retrieved from: https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-gromadianamy-sytuatsii-v-kraini-ta-dii-vlady-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-sichen-2024r
van Kessel, S. (2014). The populist cat-dog: applying the concept of populism to contemporary European party systems. Journal of Political Ideologies, 19(1), 99-118. https://doi.org/10.1080/13569317.2013.869457
Received 07.01.2024